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Tourism one industry set to ‘fall’ in 2021

New research released by IBISWorld suggests that tourism is one New Zealand industry set to continue to struggle throughout 2020-21.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken up the performance of the New Zealand economy, introducing new industries into IBISWorld’s list of top performers, and moving previously strong industries into the underperformance category.

Overall, GDP in New Zealand is expected to decline by 3.9 per cent in 2020-21, to total $246.5 billion.

"While expansionary monetary and fiscal policy will help the economy rebound, the ongoing hindrance of closed international borders is expected to constrain economic recovery in the current financial year and beyond," says IBISWorld senior industry analyst, Matthew Reeves.

Revenue in the tourism industry is expected to decline by 26.3 per cent in 2020-21 to $30.8 billion, as a result of New Zealand’s ongoing border closures to international arrivals.

New Zealand is not expected to open up its borders during 2020-21, due to continued fears of importing COVID-19 from overseas. The New Zealand Government may reach an agreement with the Australian Government to enable a resumption of travel between the two countries.

However, this travel arrangement may only be available to Australian states and territories that have demonstrated control of COVID-19, particularly after the recent flare-up of new cases in Victoria.

Other industries set to struggle in 2020-21 include electricity transmission and distribution, oil and gas extraction, department stores, and land development and subdivision.

Industries predicted to thrive in 2020-21 include superannuation funds, data processing and web hosting services, beekeeping, fishing and aquaculture, and postal and courier pick-up and delivery services.

The full research is available here.

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