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Infometrics have released the June 2026 Quarterly Economic Monitor
International arrivals are up. Domestic guest nights have barely moved. And the fuel bill from the conflict in the Middle East hasn’t reached it’s end yet.
Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon says much of this year’s strength is measured against a weak 2025.
“My takeaway is not that we are growing at a fast rate, but we have weathered the impacts of the Iran conflict better than expected, and making convincing steps in economic recovery, noting that the employment recovery is lagging behind,” he says.
International visitor arrivals rose 8.1 percent in the year to June 2026. Month to month however they fell 0.1 percent between May and June, with a similar fall the month before.
“Growth in tourism does largely reflect growth prior to the Iran War, and we’ve seen visitor arrivals from Europe and North America fall away since April,” Nick says.
The two markets that have fallen, Nick says “Europe saw a more immediate impact as their routes through the Middle East were physically disrupted, whereas the North American impact came through a month later, potentially reflecting wider disruption and fuel price impacts.”
It’s clear Australia and China are doing the heavy lifting.
The short and medium-haul markets are holding steady. Australian arrivals are up 14 percent. Chinese arrivals are up 20 percent, supported by a trial allowing visa-free travel for Chinese visitors coming to New Zealand via Australia.
But that cover has limits. “There is still potential for fuel price impacts to further hit long-haul arrivals, and strength in Australia and China may not fully make up for those,” Nick says.
Domestic guest nights rose 0.6 percent in the year to June 2026. Marketview card spending data shows the same 0.6 percent rise, which Infometrics estimates amounts to a 1.5 percent fall in real spending.
“I’d attribute the sluggish domestic guest nights to a combination of cost-of-living pressures and the weak labour market,” Nick says.
But it isn’t just people out of work.
“The unemployment rate, though relatively high, doesn’t directly affect most households, but it does have a broader chilling effect as it can make employed households more cautious about their spending,” Nick says.
Fuel remains the open question. If fuel prices move, they’re more likely to go up than down.
“What we’ve seen so far from the Iran conflict is that there is potential for short-medium haul markets to pick up on some slack if long-haul markets drop, but that doesn’t mean New Zealand’s tourism sector is fully insulated from further fuel price rises.” Nick says.
