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Business confidence has reached its strongest level since tracking began in 2022, with negative sentiment dropping 19 points and positive sentiment nearly doubling in three months, according to the Auckland Business Chamber’s February survey.
Just 25 per cent of businesses now describe overall confidence as negative or very negative, down from 44 per cent in November. Positive sentiment has increased from 16 per cent to 32 per cent.
Auckland Business Chamber chief executive Simon Bridges says the results mark a turning point.
“This is a material turnaround. After a long stretch of businesses feeling battered, this is a real lift in mood.
“Businesses aren’t euphoric, but they’re more confident about the direction of travel,” says Simon.
More than half of respondents expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, broadly in line with November. The share of businesses reporting performance below expectations has fallen from 47 per cent to 36 per cent.
Revenue trends have also strengthened, with fewer businesses reporting revenue down year on year and more reporting revenue growth. More than half expect revenue to increase over the next year.
“We’re starting to see conditions firm. Confidence is leading performance, which is often how recovery phases begin,” says Simon.
Hiring intentions have eased, with 41 per cent planning to hire, down six points from November. At the same time, two-thirds of businesses are raising or planning to raise prices, up five points.
Cost pressures remain, with 78 per cent expecting costs to rise, although that is down four points from November.
“Confidence is improving, but cost pressure hasn’t gone away,” says Simon.
Inflation and interest rates have moved back up the concern list, rising from 29 per cent in November to 44 per cent in February. Concern about productivity and growth has eased from 43 per cent to 36 per cent.
Consumer confidence and demand remain the top issue overall, cited by 55 per cent of businesses.
“Until households feel confident spending, businesses will continue to feel that constraint,” says Simon.
Simon says while February’s results show genuine momentum, recovery will depend on supportive policy settings.
“This is the strongest confidence reading we’ve seen since 2022. That matters. But recovery doesn’t run on sentiment alone. Businesses are positioning for growth. Now we need policy settings that reinforce it — disciplined spending, a focus on productivity, and measures that support demand. There’s belief returning to the business community. The job now is to keep that belief building,” he says.
