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TECNZ (Tourism Export Council of New Zealand) has released their International Arrival Forecasts 2025-2027.
Here’s what’s predicted.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, the forecast anticipates a strong recovery, with overall arrivals expected to reach 88% of pre-COVID levels, totalling approximately 3.43 million visitors. This is no small measure, considering the travel restrictions and ongoing global conditions that have impacted the tourism sector.
The key players in this recovery are the United States and Australia, showing impressive recovery rates of 99% and 88%, respectively. India is a standout, with a forecasted growth rate of 126%, showing a renewed interest from a key market.
Recovery from the UK, Germany, and other European nations remains slow, with figures hovering around the 75-67% mark. China, usually a strong player of tourism for New Zealand, is still struggling, with only a 60% recovery rate.
So what is is driving this optimistic forecast? The answer lies in a combination of factors: enhanced airline connectivity with 27 airlines servicing 42 destinations, increased demand from offshore tour wholesalers, and proactive marketing investments from both government and private sectors aimed at promoting New Zealand as a premier travel destination.
However, acknowledging the challenges ahead with geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, continue to cast shadows over travel patterns, particularly from Europe and the US. Rising airfare prices and economic instability in source markets are additional hurdles that may hinder this growth.
Despite these challenges, the forecast for the 2025-2026 season peeks at a blend of flat and modest growth, with an increase of 5% in some markets. By the end of March 2026, total arrivals are expected to reach nearly 3.73 million, inching closer to a full recovery at 96%. The subsequent year, 2027, promises an even brighter outlook, with arrivals projected to surpass pre-pandemic figures, hitting approximately 3.96 million at 102%.
The anticipated direct flight from India in 2026 could also be a game changer, further boosting arrivals from this upcoming market.
