The International Air Transport Association has released data for June 2023 global air cargo markets showing the smallest year-over-year contraction in demand since February 2022.
Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), fell 3.4 per cent in June compared to June 2022 (-3.7 per cent for international operations).
For the half year, demand slid 8.1 per cent compared to the January-June period of 2022 (-8.7 per cent for international operations). However, demand in June was only 2.4 per cent below June 2019 levels (pre-pandemic).
Capacity, as measured by available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), rose 9.7 per cent compared to June 2022, which was a slower rate compared to the double-digit growth recorded between March and May. This reflects strategic capacity adjustments airlines are making amid a weakened demand environment.
Capacity for the first half of 2023 was up 9.9 per cent compared to a year ago. Capacity is now 3.7 per cent above June 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels.
Key factors influencing air cargo demand include:
- • In June, both manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index or PMI (49.2) and new export orders PMI (47.1) were below the critical threshold represented by the 50 mark, indicating a decline in global manufacturing production and exports.
- • Global cross-border trade decreased by 2.4 per cent year-over-year in May, reflecting the cooling demand environment and challenging macroeconomic conditions. The difference between the annual growth rates of air cargo and the global goods trade narrowed to -2.6 percentage points in May, representing the smallest gap since January 2022. However, the gap still suggests that air cargo continues to suffer more than container cargo from the slowdown in global trade.
“We remain hopeful that the difficult trading conditions for air cargo will moderate as inflation eases in major economies,” says IATA director general Willie Walsh.
“This, in turn, could encourage the central banks to loosen the money supply, which could stimulate greater economic activity.”
Asia-Pacific airlinessaw their air cargo volumes decrease by 3.6 per cent in June 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was also a decline compared to May (-2.5 per cent), mainly owing to weak demand on within-Asia markets, although the Asia-North America trade lane saw improved performance. Available capacity in the region increased by 24.4 per cent compared to June 2022.
Looking at the first half of 2023, cargo demand was down 6.5 per cent versus the year-ago period against a 27.0 per cent rise in capacity.
