The International Air Transport Association has released data for May 2023 global air cargo markets showing weak market conditions.
Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), fell 5.2 per cent compared to May 2022 (-6.0 per cent for international operations).
Capacity, as measured by available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), rose 14.5 per cent compared to May 2022, primarily driven by belly capacity which increases as demand in the passenger business recovers. Capacity is now 5.9 per cent above May 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels. Key factors influencing demand include:
The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index indicates an annual contraction of 1.4 per cent in new export orders and a decrease of 5.2 per cent year-on-year in production PMI. This suggests a cooling in global manufacturing demand.
Global goods trade decreased by 0.8 per cent in April, due to macroeconomic challenges and supply chain constraints.
Trading conditions appeared to favour maritime cargo as demand for container shipping contracted by 0.2 per cent while air cargo demand weakened by 6.3 per cent year-on-year.
The global supplier delivery time PMI increased to 54.5 in May, up from its low of 35 in October 2021, indicating shorter delivery times and some relief for supply chains.
However, this is also a sign of weaker global goods trade demand.
“Trading conditions for air cargo continue to be challenging with a 5.2 per cent fall in demand and several economic indicators pointing towards weakness,” says IATA director-general Willie Walsh.
“The second half of the year, however, should bring some improvements. As inflation moderates in many markets, it is widely expected that central bank rate hikes will taper. This should help stimulate economic activity with a positive impact on demand for air cargo.”
May Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 3.3 per cent in May 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was a decrease in performance compared to April (-0.3 per cent), mainly due to the stronger annual contraction in international air cargo demand from -3.5 per cent in April to -6.4 per cent this month. Available capacity in the region increased by 38.3 per cent compared to May 2022 as more belly capacity came online from the passenger side of the business.
