The New Zealand tourism industry is likely to reap the greater benefit following the opening of the Trans-Tasman bubble, new research suggests.
In the latest results of an Angus & Associates survey 21 percent of Australians indicated that they are likely to travel to New Zealand for leisure in the next 12 months.
Similarly, 21 per cent of New Zealanders indicated that they are likely to travel to Australia in the next 12 months. While the proportions are equal, the proportion of New Zealanders indicating that they are likely to cross the Tasman has increased significantly since January (from 13 per cent in January, to 25 per cent in April). Across the four-month period, the level of demand amongst Australians has been more consistent.
“While not all will proceed with trans-Tasman travel in the time period stated, we should see New Zealand reaping the greater benefit because of the respective population size of each country,” research director Carolyn Parker says. Initial arrival numbers by Statistics New Zealand suggest New Zealand has benefited so far at a ratio of three to two.
The survey asks New Zealanders and Australians about their likelihood of travel for the next three, six and twelve months. A growing proportion of New Zealanders are also likely to travel to Australia in the next six months – from five percent in January to 15 per cent in April. These results are in line with Tourism Australia’s measure of New Zealander’s travel intentions, featured in their recent Market Briefing.
Despite a growing proportion of New Zealanders looking to travel to Australia, New Zealanders’ demand for domestic travel is so far largely unaffected by the trans-Tasman bubble’s opening. “While a softening in demand is evident in April, it’s not a significant change,” Carolyn says.
“In April 63 percent of New Zealand respondents said they’re likely to travel in New Zealand in the next six months. This compares with 65 per cent in January."
In terms of the profile of visitors to New Zealand from Australia, survey results show that Australian visitors in the coming months are more likely to be male, more likely to be younger Australians (under 50 years), and more likely to be those with children aged 5 to 14.
“As Australia’s vaccination programme progresses it will be interesting to see if the age profile of intending travellers skews older,” Carolyn says.
Angus & Associates’ survey also measures likelihood of travel to the Pacific Islands. Notably, given a Cook Islands travel bubble is signaled as imminent, survey responses for the year to date show that 12 percent of New Zealanders are likely to travel to the Pacific in the next 12 months.
The total survey sample for the period covered in this release (1 January to 30 April 2021) is n=1,820 – n=1,014 New Zealanders and n=806 Australians. Respondents are 18 years or more and representative of the general population.
