The number of people that arrived in New Zealand in May 2020 was the lowest for any month since May 1959, because of COVID-19-related border and travel restrictions, Stats NZ has released.
There were 5600 arrivals in May 2020 compared with 4700 in May 1959.
Most arrivals in May 2020 were short-term travellers, made up of 2600 New Zealand residents and 2200 overseas visitors. Provisionally there were 900 migrant arrivals. All these passenger types include New Zealand and non-New Zealand citizens.
May was the second month under full border restrictions imposed by the New Zealand government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In April 2020 there were 6300 arrivals.
“Border restrictions and widespread flight cancellations related to COVID-19 have caused the substantial drop in the number of arrivals and departures in recent months,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam says.
“Total arrivals in May are down compared with April, however provisional data for June show total arrivals rising to more than 9000.”
The combined number of arrivals and departures was 15,900 in May 2020, compared with almost 38,200 in April. In May 2019 almost 1 million people crossed the New Zealand border.
Majority of arrivals are New Zealand citizens
New Zealand had 61,500 arrivals, including 47,400 New Zealand citizens, since full border restrictions were imposed at 11:59pm on March 19, up to and including July 10, 2020.
From 11:59pm on April 9, a compulsory 14 days of managed isolation was introduced for all arrivals to New Zealand. There have been 20,300 arrivals since then, including 13,400 New Zealand citizens, up to and including July 10, 2020.
Border restrictions have allowed New Zealand citizens and their families to return, along with other traveller groups granted exemptions.
For each of the three passenger types – overseas visitors, New Zealand residents, and migrants – about three-quarters of arrivals in April and May were New Zealand citizens. The remaining one-quarter included family of New Zealand citizens, essential workers, and other exempt travellers.
Across all passenger types who arrived in April and May 2020, 8700 were New Zealand citizens. The largest number of arrivals came from Australia (3600 or 44 per cent), the United Kingdom (700 or 9 per cent), the United States (600 or 7 per cent), and India (500 or 6 per cent).
Most departures are non-New Zealand citizens
There were 2600 departures of New Zealand citizens in May 2020, out of 10,200 total departures.
Across a combined 42,200 departures in April and May, 9900 (23 per cent) were German citizens, 7600 (18 per cent) were United Kingdom citizens, 4000 (9 per cent) were New Zealand citizens, 3700 (9 per cent) were Chinese citizens, and 3500 (8 per cent) were French citizens.
Preliminary estimates indicate that 115,000–135,000 overseas visitors remain in New Zealand at 3 July 2020. They include Australian and New Zealand citizens visiting New Zealand, as well as some visitors on work, student, visitor, and other visa types. At the same time in 2019, there were 140,000–150,000 overseas visitors in New Zealand.
Annual migration estimates remain at high levels
Net migration for the months of April and May 2020 were provisionally 0 and 400, respectively. Despite low recent migration, provisional migration estimates for the year ended May 2020 show annual net migration at 80,700. Migrant arrivals were 160,700 and migrant departures were 80,000.
Border restrictions and widespread flight cancellations related to COVID-19 meant many people who arrived in New Zealand in recent months were unable to leave.
“People arriving in New Zealand over the last year have tended to stay longer than usual, especially those who have arrived since late 2019,” Tehseen says.
“The prolonged stay of arrivals to New Zealand may cause an initial overestimation of migrant arrivals and net migration for recent months.”
Among New Zealand citizens, migrant arrivals and migrant departures are provisionally estimated at 46,000 and 31,200, respectively, for the year ended May 2020. As a result, net migration of New Zealand citizens for the year ended May 2020 is provisionally estimated at 14,700. This net gain continues the recent reversal of the historical net loss of New Zealand citizens, which averaged 20,000 a year between 2002 and 2019.
However, due to COVID-19 travel restrictions and unusual travel patterns, provisional migration estimates for recent months are subject to more uncertainty than usual.
How much provisional migration estimates are revised in the coming months depends on when international travel resumes in earnest, and whether people who arrived in recent months choose to depart New Zealand or extend their stay.
Migration estimates for six months ago have more certainty than estimates for the latest months. Net migration for the year ended November 2019 is provisionally estimated at 64,000. Migration estimates for the year ended January 2019 have now been finalised with a net migration of 49,100.
